气候变化背景下中国朱鹮适宜生境时空格局

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202306.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 朱鹮是世界自然保护联盟濒危物种之一,关注其在气候变化背景下的适宜生境变化具有重要意义。本研究基于朱鹮观测点位数据,使用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,对当前情景和未来气候变化下朱鹮适宜生境进行模拟预测。结果表明: 使用MaxEnt模型拟合朱鹮适宜生境分布的准确性较高,AUC值为0.989;最冷月份最低温、最冷季度均温和年均降雨量是影响朱鹮生境的主导环境因子;当前气候情景下,中国朱鹮中高适生区面积为10.65万km²,主要集中分布在陕西、四川、湖北、河南和甘肃等地;未来气候变化下,朱鹮适宜生境面积将显著增加,主要分布在安徽、重庆、贵州、江苏、湖南、山东、陕西、江西、台湾、云南、辽宁和福建等地,其中,2041—2060年SSP126情景下朱鹮中高适生区面积达到最大,比当前气候情景增加139.53万km²,占国土面积的19.6%。本研究结果可为制定全球气候变化下的朱鹮种群保护政策提供决策依据。

关键词: MaxEnt 模型, 气候变化, 生境适宜性, 朱鹮

Abstract: Crested ibis (Nipponia nippon) is one of the endangered species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature. It is of great significance to pay attention to the changes of its suitable habitat in the context of climate change. Based on the geographical distribution data of crested ibis, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable habitat of crested ibis under current scenario and future climate change. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was high, with an AUC value of 0.989. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the mean annual rainfall were the dominant environmental factors affecting the habitat of crested ibis. Under current climate scenario, the area of moderately and highly suitable area of Chinese crested ibis was 10.65×10⁴ km², mainly distributed in Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Henan, and Gansu. In the future, the suitable habitat area of crested ibis would increase significantly under climate change, mainly distributed in Anhui, Chongqing, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Hunan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, Taiwan, Yunnan, Liaoning, and Fujian. In the SSP126 scenario from 2041 to 2060, the suitable habitat area of crested ibis would reach the maximum, being 139.53×10⁴ km² higher than that of the current climate scenario, accounting for 19.6% of the land area. This study could provide a basis for policy making on the conservation of crested ibis under global climate change.

Key words: MaxEnt model, climate change, habitat suitability, crested ibis

夏卓异, 苏杰, 尹海伟, 孔繁花. 气候变化背景下中国朱鹮适宜生境时空格局[J]. 应用生态学报, 2023, 34(6): 1467-1473.

XIA Zhuoyi, SU Jie, YIN Haiwei, KONG Fanhua. Temporal and spatial patterns of habitat of Nipponia nippon in China under the background of climate change[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2023, 34(6): 1467-1473.

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